The Daily · Podcast summary
48 Days Until the Midterms: Is a Blue Wave Coming?
In this episode of The Daily, Michael Barbaro speaks with three of his colleagues, Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman, and Nate Cohn, about the upcoming midterm elections. They discuss a new poll from The New York Times that suggests Democrats have a real shot at winning control of both chambers of Congress, despite serious obstacles and an unpopular president.
Listen on the show ↗Key takeaways
- 📊A new New York Times poll indicates Democrats have a strong chance of winning control of both chambers of Congress, leading Republicans by nearly nine points in the race for Congress, signaling a potential "wave election."02:35
- 📉Donald Trump's actions in office have made him unpopular, with voters perceiving the Republican Party as more "elitist," "extreme," and "corrupt," particularly on "cost of living issues."03:55
- 🗣️Despite his unpopularity, Trump is intentionally making the midterm elections "all about himself," even asking supporters to pledge allegiance to him rather than the country or the Republican Party, a politically counter-intuitive strategy.06:39
- 📈Democrats have a conceivable path to winning the Senate by flipping four Republican seats and holding their three most vulnerable, with key battlegrounds in states Trump previously won by significant margins.10:04
- 💰Republicans hold a massive financial advantage, potentially close to a billion dollars, due to strong fundraising by Trump's super PACs and the RNC, which Democrats are struggling to counter.19:50
- 🚩Republicans are employing a "summer of socialism" strategy, labeling Democratic candidates as "radicals" and "socialists" to scare voters, a tactic that resonates with 50% of voters who think the Democratic Party is too far left.24:48
Chapters
- 0:39Introduction to the Midterm Elections
- 3:38The New York Times Poll Findings
- 5:54Trump's Unpopularity and its Impact
- 10:39Trump's Strategy: Making it All About Him
- 16:44The Senate Map: A Democratic Path to Victory
- 31:48The Money Advantage: A Republican Edge
- 40:08The 'Summer of Socialism' Strategy
- 49:00Sleeper Issues and Trump's Legacy
- 58:34Conclusion: A Turning Page in American Politics
The digest
With fewer than 50 days until the midterm elections, a major new poll from The New York Times suggests that Democrats have a real shot at winning control of both chambers of Congress. This comes as an unpopular president, Donald Trump, insists on making the election "all about himself." However, serious obstacles remain in the Democrats' way, including a half-billion-dollar financial advantage for Republicans.
Today, Michael Barbaro speaks with three of his colleagues—national political correspondent Shane Goldmacher, White House reporter Maggie Haberman, and chief political analyst Nate Cohn—to discuss the implications of this new poll and the state of the midterm elections.
The New York Times Poll: A Democratic Advantage
Nate Cohn begins by revealing the top-line findings of the new poll: Democrats are well-positioned to make major gains this fall. They lead Republicans by nearly nine points in the race for Congress. Cohn explains that this is "wave territory," which is the kind of election where one party sweeps the other out of the most competitive states and districts. He notes that a nine-point lead is almost exactly the same as the Democratic margin from 2018, Trump's first midterm election, and is larger than other recent wave elections like 1994, 2006, or 2010.
Barbaro highlights the historical significance of these comparisons: 1994 saw Republicans sweep into office with Newt Gingrich becoming House Speaker, and 2018 was a huge historical victory for Democrats. Cohn clarifies that while this big national advantage suggests Democrats are favored to take the House, winning the Senate is "a little more complicated" due to the uphill climb Democrats face in many states. However, with this kind of national advantage, they have a serious chance to put even traditionally red states into play.
Keep reading in The Digest
The full 8-minute article, 6 more sections, and every new episode from The Daily and the creators you follow.
- Trump's Unpopularity and its Impact
- Trump's Strategy: Making it All About Him
- The Senate Map: A Democratic Path to Victory
- The Money Advantage: A Republican Edge
- The "Summer of Socialism" Strategy
- Sleeper Issues and Trump's Legacy
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