The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

Bill Simmons, joined by Cousin Sal and Joe House, took a comprehensive look at the AFC's over/under win totals for the upcoming season. The trio offered their insights, bold predictions, and detailed breakdowns for each team, often finding themselves in spirited debate.

The AFC East: Bills, Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins

The conversation kicked off with the AFC East, a division that promises intrigue and potential upsets. Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal found themselves at odds over the Buffalo Bills' prospects. Sal, ever the optimist for consistent winners, predicted the Bills to hit 11 wins, citing their six consecutive seasons with 11+ wins and Josh Allen's unparalleled impact. "Why am I going to take two wins away from them?" Sal questioned, highlighting Allen's ability to elevate the team despite perceived weaknesses in other areas. He emphasized Allen's "wins above replacement" value, arguing that without him, the Bills would be a mere six-win team. Bill, however, leaned towards the under at 10 wins, expressing concerns about the Bills' tough schedule, new offensive coordinator, and a defense that he felt was not as strong as perceived. He pointed out their five difficult road games and the fact that they only play three games indoors.

The New England Patriots, despite their perceived easy schedule last year, face a different challenge this season. Bill Simmons, surprisingly, went over on the Patriots at 11 wins, citing the addition of AJ Brown as a potential "Moss-like super boost." He acknowledged the team's history of cheapness but highlighted the advantage of Drake Maye's rookie deal and the continuity in their coaching staff. Sal, however, was not as optimistic, predicting 10 wins for the Patriots and emphasizing the difficulty of their schedule, particularly their first five games. He also brought up the "Cover 6" defensive strategy that proved effective against Maye in the playoffs, suggesting other teams might adopt it.

Moving on to the New York Jets, Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal both surprisingly went over the 5.5 win total. Sal predicted 7 wins, while Bill went with 7-10, acknowledging the team's abysmal 3-14 record last year but highlighting their significant draft capital and improved offensive line. Bill also humorously questioned why defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, whose defense failed to record a single interception last season, was retained. Sal, however, was more focused on the Jets' early schedule, noting that four of their first eight games are against teams like the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, and Raiders, offering a potential 4-4 start. He also touched upon the "dumbest Week 1 result" phenomenon, suggesting the Jets-Titans game could be a prime candidate.

The Miami Dolphins, with a 5.5 win total, were a point of contention. Bill Simmons leaned towards the under, citing the team's difficult schedule and the potential for regression from their quarterback. He also highlighted the significant amount of money the Dolphins are paying players who are no longer on the team, totaling $162 million for six players. Sal, however, saw a path to 8 wins, emphasizing the team's offensive firepower and the potential for their running game to exploit weaker defenses. He also pointed out the team's improved offensive line and the potential for their defense to be a top unit in the league.