Poll Me Twice, Shame On Me

Jon Lovett welcomes Nate Silver, Claire Malone, and Galen Druke, the team behind the new Crooked Media podcast "Still Counting," to discuss the upcoming midterm elections. The conversation delves into Donald Trump's political strategies, the dynamics of key Senate races, and the complexities of political modeling and polling.

Trump's Midterm Strategy: A Data-Driven Approach?

Lovett opens by asking what Donald Trump would be doing if he were making "state-of-the-art decisions based on the data" to help Republicans win the midterms. Galen Druke suggests Trump would likely end the war in Iran, undo tariffs, and elevate other Republicans rather than focusing solely on himself. Druke points out that during Trump's first term, his approval ratings often rose when he stepped back from the media spotlight. However, Druke believes the current political climate is different, with voters primarily concerned about the economy and inflation. He argues that even if Trump were to disappear from the media, people wouldn't forget their economic frustrations.

Nate Silver adds that many of the "worst decisions" in a presidential term are "baked in early." He humorously suggests Trump would need a time machine to undo his decision to go to war in Iran, highlighting that quagmires are the result of poor planning. Claire Malone recalls that even in late 2020, Trump's advisors were urging him to focus on affordability. She notes that Trump's initial focus on lowering drug prices and creating the "Trump Rx" website seemed to be a more effective strategy for him, but this was quickly overshadowed by other events.

Silver observes that Trump seems to be "grasping at straws," engaging in actions like renaming Lake Ontario "Lake America" and hosting a midterm convention focused on himself. He argues that Trump has never genuinely cared about the Republican Party's fate in the midterms, citing his endorsement of Ken Paxton in Texas and his actions during the Georgia Senate runoffs in 2021. Lovett agrees, noting that Trump's current actions, such as hosting a midterm convention and allowing reporters to chase Republican House members, seem counterproductive if his goal was to help the party.