Bill Kristol: A Blue Wave vs. the Toxic Red Tide

Tim Miller and Bill Kristol delve into the complexities of the upcoming midterm elections, dissecting the current political climate and drawing insightful comparisons to past electoral cycles, specifically 2006 and 1994. Their conversation explores the potential for a Democratic "blue wave," the impact of various political scandals, and the evolving dynamics of voter behavior.

The 2022 Midterms: A Big Picture View

Bill Kristol opens the discussion by expressing his long-held belief that 2022 would be a significant Democratic year. He bases this on the "obvious facts," primarily former President Donald Trump's consistently low approval ratings since his inauguration. Kristol emphasizes that an incumbent president's approval rating is a strong predictor of midterm election outcomes, especially when their party controls both chambers of Congress. He notes that Trump's party currently holds both, making the election a referendum on their performance. Kristol suggests that while he initially thought it would be a "good year" for Democrats, the confluence of factors like the Iran War, rising inflation, and Trump's perceived disconnect from everyday Americans could transform it into a "very good year" for the Democratic party.

Tim Miller largely agrees with Kristol's "big picture" assessment, particularly regarding the House. Miller anticipates substantial Democratic gains, especially among Latino voters in states like Texas and Florida, where he believes the conventional wisdom and prognostication are incorrect. He foresees a "Trump backsliding" effect and predicts that Democrats will "overperform" in these areas. Miller's analysis suggests that while current projections, like those from Nate Silver, show Democrats netting around 8 seats (reaching 222), he believes they could net as many as 16 seats, bringing them to 230. He attributes the discrepancy between his projection and others to two main factors: the impact of Republican gerrymandering and the nature of a highly polarized political landscape where fewer districts are truly in play. He also highlights that in a "wave" election, districts that appear safe for one party can unexpectedly flip, citing examples of "Trump +6, +7, +8" districts that could become competitive.