Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback

This week, the All-In Podcast crew — Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, and Bestie Gavin — delved into the latest developments in the AI landscape, from massive IPO valuations to the ongoing debate between open-source and centralized AI models.

Anthropic's Meteoric Rise and IPO Speculation

Jason kicked off the discussion by highlighting the buzz around Anthropic's potential $2 trillion IPO, a figure that would dwarf even SpaceX's record-setting 1.75 trillion-dollar IPO. He noted that the Financial Times reported investors expect the company to go public in October, just six to eight weeks away. This aligns with Polymarket's prediction of an 80% chance of an Anthropic IPO this year. Brad Gerstner, a "fifth bestie," had also signaled this would happen sooner rather than later.

Chamath emphasized the extraordinary revenue ramp-up, projecting Anthropic to end the year with an annualized run rate between $100 billion and $120 billion. "This is an extraordinary ramp-up of revenue that we have never seen in Silicon Valley," he stated. At a $2 trillion valuation, this would represent 16 to 20 times sales, a fraction of what companies like SpaceX and Palantir achieved at their IPOs. Anthropic's revenue growth has been a staggering 10x over the last year.

Bestie Gavin, while not an Anthropic shareholder, acknowledged the "exceptional" rumored numbers. "We've really never seen anything like this," he said, referring to the company's growth. He also pointed out the "wild" aspect of Anthropic's growth: despite losing market share to OpenAI, open-source models, and Grok, the company is still growing "so fast." This is largely due to the rapidly expanding AI market, where the "pie is getting ginormous."

Sacks agreed, stating that AI broadly accelerated in July, leading to a "major, major pie growing moment." He praised Anthropic as an "exceptional business" with amazing products, echoing Eric Vishria's thought experiment that companies like OpenAI and Anthropic would retain significant value even if they lost at the model layer, thanks to their product, user familiarity, and harness.

Regarding the $2 trillion valuation, Gavin expressed skepticism, suggesting that such leaks often come from bankers who lost the lead left position and want to make the winners look bad. He believes Anthropic will price its IPO smartly, perhaps at $2 trillion, which could then trade up to $3 trillion. Sacks added that in the history of Silicon Valley, a revenue ramp like Anthropic's has never been seen, and if it continues, it would signify the immense value AI brings to corporations and enterprises.